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2026 Vol.42, Issue 3 Preview Page
Post-Wildfire Debris-Flow Likelihood Assessment for Expressway-Adjacent Watersheds in South Korea Using the USGS M1 Model

USGS M1 모델 기반 산불 이후 고속도로 인접 유역의 토석류 발생가능성 평가

Suho Cho1
,
Han-Saem Kim2*
,
Bumsik Hwang3
,
Teawan Bang4
,
Wanjei Cho5
조 수호1
,
김 한샘2*
,
황 범식3
,
방 태완4
,
조 완제5
1Member, M.S. Student, Dept. of Civil and Enviromental Engineering, Dongguk Univ.
2Member, Assistant Prof., Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Dongguk Univ.
3Member, Senior Researcher, Korea Expressway Corporation Research Institute, Korea Expressway Corporation
4Member, Graduate Student, Dept. of Civil and Environment Engineering, Dankook Univ.
5Member, Prof., Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Dankook Univ.
1정회원, 동국대학교 건설환경공학과 석사과정
2정회원, 동국대학교 건설환경공학과 조교수
3정회원, 한국도로공사 책임연구원
4정회원, 단국대학교 토목환경공학과 석박사통합과정
5정회원, 단국대학교 토목환경공학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
30 June 2026. pp. 143-157
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Abstract

Post-wildfire debris flows can occur rapidly during short-duration rainfall events because wildfires alter vegetative cover, soil properties, and surface runoff processes. However, conventional debris-flow risk-assessments for Korean expressways have primarily focused on topographic and structural vulnerability factors without explicitly considering wildfire-induced changes in the debris-flow likelihood assessment. Therefore, this study examines the preliminary applicability of the U.S. Geological Survey M1 post-wildfire debris-flow likelihood model to a wildfire-affected watershed adjacent to an expressway in South Korea. The model was implemented using a satellite-derived difference normalized burn ratio, a digital elevation model, rainfall data from a nearby automatic weather station, and information on soil erosion. The calculated likelihood based on the M1 model exceeded 80% for the investigated watershed under the selected post-wildfire rainfall conditions. Additionally, based on the existing expressway debris-flow assessment, the site was classified as grade C. The estimated debris-flow volume was <1,000 m3, which corresponds to a moderate volume class in the USGS framework. These results indicate that the M1 model provides useful supplementary information for screening post-wildfire debris-flow-prone watersheds. However, further validation and regional calibration are required for Korean geomorphological, hydrological, and soil conditions.

Keywords
Debris-flow likelihood assessment
Expressway
Post-wildfire debris flow
Remote sensing
USGS M1 model

산불 이후 토석류는 식생 소실, 토양 표면 특성 변화, 지표유출 증가로 인해 단시간 강우 조건에서도 급격히 발생할 수 있다. 그러나 국내 고속도로 토석류 위험도 평가체계는 주로 지형 조건, 대책시설, 퇴적 및 도로 피해 가능성에 기반하고 있어 산불로 인한 토석류 발생가능성 증가를 명시적으로 반영하는 데 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 미국 지질조사국(USGS)의 산불 후 토석류 발생확률 예측모델인 M1 모델을 국내 산불 피해 고속도로 인접 유역에 시범 적용하고, 국내 적용 가능성을 예비적으로 검토하였다. 입력자료로는 위성영상 기반 dNBR, 수치표고모델, 인근 AWS 강우자료, 토양침식인자를 활용하였다. 분석 결과, 대상 유역의 M1 기반 토석류 발생확률은 선정된 산불 후 강우 조건에서 80% 이상으로 산정되었으며, 기존 고속도로 토석류 위험도 평가 결과는 C등급으로 나타났다. 또한 USGS 토석류량 예측모델에 따른 추정 토석류량은 1,000 m3 이하로 산정되어 중간 수준의 규모 등급에 해당하였다. 본 연구 결과는 M1 모델이 산불 이후 토석류 취약 유역의 신속한 선별을 위한 보조 지표로 활용될 수 있음을 시사한다. 다만 국내 지형, 강우, 토양 및 산불 피해 특성을 반영한 추가 검증과 지역화 보정이 필요하다.

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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Geotechnical Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지반공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국지반공학회 논문집
  • Volume : 42
  • No :3
  • Pages :143-157
  • Received Date : 2026-06-08
  • Revised Date : 2026-06-26
  • Accepted Date : 2026-06-26
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7843/kgs.2026.42.3.143
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