All Issue

2016 Vol.32, Issue 4 Preview Page
Rainfall Threshold (ID curve) for Landslide Initiation and Prediction Considering Antecedent Rainfall

선행강우를 고려한 산사태 유발 강우기준(ID curve) 분석

Moon-Hyun Hong1
,
Jung-Hwan Kim2
,
Gyung-Ja Jung3
,
Sang-Seom Jeong4*
홍 문현1
,
김 정환2
,
정 경자3
,
정 상섬4*
1Graduate Student, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Yonsei Univ.
2Post-doctoral Fellow, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Yonsei Univ.
3Chief Researcher, HTTI, Korea Highway Corporation
4Prof., Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Yonsei Univ.
1연세대학교 토목환경공공학과 박사과정
2연세대학교 토목환경공학과 박사 후 연구원
3한국도로공사 도로교통기술원 책임연구원
4연세대학교 토목환경공학과 교수
*교신저자. *Corresponding Author. 
30 April 2016. pp. 15-27
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

This study was conducted to suggest a landslide triggering rainfall threshold (ID curve) for landslide prediction by considering the effect of antecedent rainfall. 202 rainfall data including domestic landslide and rainfall records were used in this study. In order to consider the effect of antecedent rainfall, rainfall data were analyzed by changing Inter Event Time Definition (IETD) and IETD based ID curve were presented by regression analysis. Compared to the findings of the previous studies, the presented ID curve has a tendency to predict the landslides occurring at a relatively low rainfall intensity. It is shown that the proposed ID curve is appropriate and realistic for predicting landslides through the validation of proposed ID curve using records of landslides in 2014. Based on this analysis, it is found that the longer IETD, the greater the effect of antecedent rainfall, and the steeper the gradient of ID curve. It is also found that the rainfall threshold (intensity) is higher for the short period rainfall and lower for the long period rainfall.

Keywords
Rainfall threshold
Rainfall intensity
Rainfall duration
Antecedent rainfall
ID curve
Inter event time definition (IETD)

본 연구에서는 국내 산사태 발생을 예측하기 위하여 선행강우의 영향을 고려한 산사태 유발 강우기준(Intensity- Duration, ID curve)을 제안하였다. 1999년부터 2013년까지 국내에서 유발된 202개의 산사태에 대하여, 기상청 강우자료를 바탕으로 산사태 발생 시점 이전의 시강우량 데이터를 수집하고 분석하였다. 선행강우의 영향을 고려하기 위해 강우사상간 시간(Inter event time definition, IETD)을 6, 12, 24, 48, 72, 96시간으로 구분하고, 회귀분석을 통해 강우기준을 제안하였다. 국외의 산사태 유발강우기준과 제안된 유발강우기준을 비교하였으며, 선행강우에 대한 산사태 유발 강우기준의 변화를 분석하였다. 그 결과, 국내의 경우 비교적 낮은 강우강도에서 산사태가 유발되는 것으로 나타났으며, IETD가 증가할수록 산사태 유발강우기준의 기울기가 증가하는 경향이 나타났다. 따라서 단기간의 강우에 대해서는 산사태 유발강우기준(강우강도)이 높아지고, 장기간의 강우에 대해서는 낮아지는 것을 알 수 있었다. 2014년도에 국내에서 발생한 산사태 재해이력을 이용하여 검토한 결과, 본 연구에서 제안된 ID curve가 산사태 유발을 비교적 잘 예측할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다.

References
1
1.Adams, B. J. and Papa, F. (2001), “Urban Stormwater Management Planning with Analytical Probabilistic Models”, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 28(3), pp.545.
2
2.Aleotti, P. (2004), “A Warning System for Rainfall-induced Shallow Failures”, Engineering Geology, 73(3), pp.247-265.
3
3.Associated ministries of South Korean government (2013), Abnormal Climate Report. Korean government, 11-1360000-000705-11.
4
4.Borga, M., Dalla Fontana, G., and Cazorzi, F. (2002), “Analysis of Topographic and Climatic Control on Rainfall-triggered Shallow Landsliding Using a Quasi-dynamic Wetness Index”, Journal of Hydrology, 268(1), pp.56-71.
5
5.Caine, N. (1980), “The Rainfall Intensity-duration Control of Shallow Landslides and Debris Flows”, Geogr Ann A 62, 23-27.
6
6.Campbell, R. H. (1975), Soil slips, debris flows, and rainstorms in the Santa Monica Mountains and vicinity, southern California (No. 851). US Govt. Print. Off.
7
7.Cannon, SH. and Ellen, SD. (1985), “Rainfall Conditions for Abundant Debris Avalanches, San Francisco Bay Region, California”, Calif Geol 38, pp. 267-272.
8
8.Chatterjea, K. (1989), Observations on the fluvial and slope processes in Singapore and their impact on the urban environment. Doctoral dissertation, Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences, National University of Singapore.
9
9.Cho, S. E. and Lee, S. R. (2000), “Slope Stability Analysis of Unsaturated Soil Slopes due to Rainfall Infiltration”, Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society, 16(1), pp.51-64.
10
10.Chung, J. H., Lee, J. S., and Park, S. H. (2010), “Analysis on a Minimum Period Without Rainfall in Mountainous Catchment”, Conference of Korea Water Resource Association. pp.1630.
11
11.Corominas, J. (2000), Landslides and climate. Keynote lecture. In: Proc. 8th Int. Symp. on Landslides (Bromhead E, Dixon N, IbsenML, eds), vol. 4. Cardiff: A.A. Balkema, pp.1-33.
12
12.Crosta, GB. and Frattini, P. (2001), Rainfall thresholds for triggering soil slips and debris flow. In: Proc. 2nd EGS Plinius Conf. on Mediterranean Storms (Mugnai A, Guzzetti F, Roth G, eds). Siena, pp.463-487.
13
13.Dahal, R. K. and Hasegawa, S. (2008), “Representative Rainfall Thresholds for Landslides in the Nepal Himalaya”, Geomorphology, 100(3), pp.429-443.
14
14.Fourie, A. B., Rowe, D., and Blight, G. E. (1999), “The Effect of Infiltration on the Stability of the Slopes of a Dry Ash Dump”, Geotechnique, 49(1), pp.1-13.
15
15.Giannecchini, R. (2005), Rainfall triggering soil slips in the southern Apuane Alps (Tuscany, Italy). Adv Geosci 2, pp.21-24.
16
16.Govi, M. and Sorzana, PF. (1980), “Landslide susceptibility as function of critical rainfall amount in Piedmont basin (Northwestern Italy)”, Studia Geomorphologica Carpatho-Balcanica, 14, pp.43-60.
17
17.Guidicini, G. and Iwasa, O. Y. (1977), “Tentative Correlation between Rainfall and Landslides in a Humid Tropical Environment”, Bulletin of the International Association of Engineering Geology- Bulletin de l’Association Internationale de Géologie de l’Ingénieur, 16(1), pp.13-20.
18
18.Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., and Stark, C. P. (2007), “Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe”, Meteorology and atmospheric physics, 98(3-4), pp.239-267.
19
19.Hong, Y., Hiura, H., Shino, K., Sassa, K., Suemine, A., Fukuoka, H., and Wang, G. (2005), “The Influence of Intense Rainfall on the Activity of Large-scale Crystalline Schist Landslides in Shikoku Island, Japan”, Landslides 2(2), pp.97-105.
20
20.Ikeya, H. (1989), “Debris Flow and its Countermeasures in Japan”, Bulletin of the International Association of Engineering Geology- Bulletin de l'Association Internationale de Géologie de l'Ingénieur, 40(1), pp.15-33.
21
21.Innes, JL. (1983), Debris flows, Prog Phys Geog 7, pp.469-501.
22
22.Jang, C. B. (2014), A Study on Behavior Characteristics and Scale of Debris Flow in Korea, M.S. Thesis, Kangwon National University.
23
23.Jeong, S. S., Choi, J. Y., and Lee, J. H. (2009), “Stability Analysis of Unsaturated Weathered Soil Slopes Considering Rainfall Duration”, Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 29(1C), pp.1-9.
24
24.Jeong, S. S., Kim, J. H., Kim, Y. M., and Bae, D. H. (2014), Susceptibility assessment of landslides under extreme-rainfall events using hydro-geotechnical model; a case study of Umyeonsan (Mt.), Korea. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2(8), pp.5575-5601.
25
25.Jibson, RW. (1989), Debris flow in southern Porto Rico. Geological Society of America, special paper 236, pp.29-55.
26
26.Kanji, MA., Massad, F., Cruz, PT. (2003), “Debris Flows in Areas of Residual Soils: Occurrence and Characteristics”, Int. Workshop on Occurrence and Mechanisms of Flows in Natural Slopes and Earthfills. Iw-Flows2003, Sorrento: Associacione Geotecnica Italiana 2, pp.1-11.
27
27.Kim, J. H., Jeong, S. S., Kim, Y. M., and Lee, K. W. (2013), “Proposal of Design Method for Landslides Considering Antecedent Rainfall and In-situ Matric Suction”, Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society, 29(12), pp.11-24.
28
28.Kim, J. H., Jeong, S. S., and Regueiro, R. A. (2012), “Instability of Partially Saturated Soil Slopes due to Alteration of Rainfall Pattern”, Engineering Geology, 147, pp.28-36.
29
29.Korea Forest Service (2010), Countermeasure for forest disaster in the summer season, Korea Forest Service Report, pp.21.
30
30.Lee, S. R., Oh, T. K., Kim, Y. K., and Kim, H. C. (2009), “Influence of Rainfall Intensity and Saturated Permeability on Slope Stability during Rainfall Infiltration”, Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society, 25(1), pp.65-76.
31
31.Liao, Z., Hong, Y., Kirschbaum, D., Adler, R. F., Gourley, J. J., and Wooten, R. (2011), Evaluation of TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis)’s predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides: a case study in Macon County, North Carolina. Natural hazards, 58(1), pp.325-339.
32
32.Ng, C. W. W. and Shi, Q. (1998), “A Numerical Investigation of the Stability of Unsaturated Soil Slopes Subjected to Transient Seepage”, Computers and geotechnics, 22(1), pp.1-28.
33
33.Oh, J. and Park, H. J. (2013), “Establishment of Landslide Rainfall Threshold for Risk Assessment in Gangwon Area”, Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 13(3), pp.43-51.
34
34.Oh, J. and Park, H. J. (2014), “Analysis of Landslide Triggering Rainfall Threshold for Prediction of Landslide Occurrence”, Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 14(2), pp.115-129
35
35.Onodera, T., Yoshinaka, R., and Kazama, H. (1974), Slope failures caused by heavy rainfall in Japan. In: Proc. 2nd Int. Congress of the Int Ass Eng Geol, vol. 11. San Paulo 11, pp.1-10.
36
36.Paronuzzi, P., Coccolo, A., and Garlatti, G. (1998), Eventi meteorici critici e debris flows nei bacini montani del Friuli. L’Acqua, Sezione I=Memorie, pp.39-50.
37
37.Rahardjo, H., Li, X. W., Toll, D. G., and Leong, E. C. (2001), “The Effect of Antecedent Rainfall on Slope Stability”, Geotechnical & Geological Engineering, 19(3-4), pp.371-399.
38
38.Rahimi, A., Rahardjo, H., and Leong, E. C. (2010), “Effect of Antecedent Rainfall Patterns on Rainfall-induced Slope Failure”, Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 137(5), pp.483-491.
39
39.Restrepo-Posada, P. J. and Eagleson, P. S. (1982), Identification of Independent Rainstorms, Journal of Hydrology, 55(1), pp.303-319.
40
40.Song, Y. K., Kim, Y. U., and Kim, D. W. (2013), “Recommendation of ID Criterion for Steep-Slope Failure Estimation Considering Rainfall Infiltration Mechanism”, Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society, 29(5), pp.65-74.
41
41.Tan, S. B., Tan, S. L., Lim, T. L., and Yang, K. S. (1987), Landslide problems and their control in Singapore. In Proceedings of the 9th Southeast Asian Geotechnical Conference, Bangkok, Thailand, 1, pp.25-36.
42
42.Tatizana, C., Ogura, M., Rocha, M., and Cerri, LES. (1987), Analise de correlacao entre chuvas e escorregamentos, Serra do Mar, Municipio de Cubatao. Proc. 5th Congress Brasiler, Geol Eng San Paolo, pp.225-236.
43
43.Wei, J., Heng, Y. S., Chow, W. C., and Chong, M. K. (1991), Landslide at Bukit Batok sports complex. In Proceedings of the 9th Asian Regional/Geotechnical Conference.
44
44.Wieczorek, G. F. and Glade, T. (2005), Climatic factors influencing occurrence of debris flows, In Debris-flow hazards and related phenomena, pp.325-362. Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
45
45.Wilson, R. C. (1989), Rainstorms, pore pressures, and debris flows: a theoretical framework. Landslides in a semi-arid environment, 2nd edn. Publications of the Inland Geological Society, California, pp.101-117.
46
46.Wilson, RC., Torikai, JD., Ellen, SD. (1992), Development of rainfall thresholds for debris flows in the Honolulu District, Oahu. US Geological Survey Open-File Report, 45, pp.92-521.
47
47.Yune, C. Y., Jun, K. J., Kim, K. S., Kim, G. H., and Lee, S. W. (2010), “Analysis of slope hazard-triggering rainfall characteristics in Gangwon province by database construction”, Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society, 26(10), pp.27-38.
Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Geotechnical Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지반공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국지반공학회 논문집
  • Volume : 32
  • No :4
  • Pages :15-27
  • Received Date : 2016-01-22
  • Revised Date : 2016-05-08
  • Accepted Date : 2016-04-14
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7843/kgs.2016.32.4.15
Journal Informaiton Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
Archives
: Vol.23~28 (2007~2012)
  • NRF
  • KOFST
  • KISTI Current Status
  • KISTI Cited-by
  • crosscheck
  • orcid
  • open access
  • ccl
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close