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2014 Vol.30, Issue 12
Landslide Triggering Rainfall Threshold Based on Landslide Type

사면파괴 유형별 강우 한계선 설정

Ji-Sung Lee1
,
Yun-Tae Kim2
,
Young-Karb Song3
,
Dae-Heung Jang4
이 지성1
,
김 윤태2
,
송 영갑3
,
장 대흥4
1Graduate Student, Dept. of Ocean Engrg., Pukyong National Univ.
2Prof., Dept. of Ocean Engrg., Pukyong National Univ.
3Principal Researcher, National Disaster Management Institute
4Prof., Dept. of Statistics, Pukyong National Univ.
1부경대학교 해양공학과 박사과정
2부경대학교 해양공학과 교수
3국립재난안전연구원 시설연구사
4부경대학교 통계학과 교수
교신저자. Corresponding Author. 
31 December 2014. pp. 5-14
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Abstract

Most of slope failures have taken place between June and September in Korea, which cause a considerable damage to society. Rainfall intensity and duration are very significant triggering factors for landslide. In this paper, landslide- triggering rainfall threshold consisting of rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) was proposed. For this study, total 255 landslides were collected in landslide inventory during 1999 to 2012 from NDMI (National Disaster Management Institute), various reports, newspapers and field survey. And most of the required rainfall data were collected from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). The collected landslides were classified into three categories: debris flow, shallow landslide and unconfirmed. A rainfall threshold was proposed based on landslide type using statistical method such as quantile-regression method. Its validation was carried out based on 2013 landslide database. The proposed rainfall threshold was also compared with previous rainfall thresholds. The proposed landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds could be used in landslide early warning system in Korea.

Keywords
Landslide
Debris flow
Rainfall intensity-duration threshold
Quantile-regression

국내 대부분의 사면파괴는 6월~9월에 발생하며, 이러한 사면파괴는 사회적으로 큰 손실을 유발한다. 사면파괴의 주요 원인은 강우강도(Intensity, I)와 강우기간(Duration, D)이다. 본 연구에서는 강우강도-기간(I-D)을 고려한 사면파괴 유발 강우 한계선(rainfall threshold)을 제안하였다. 본 연구를 위해서 국립재난안전연구원과 다양한 보고서 및 매체 그리고 현장조사를 통해서 1999년부터 2012년까지 풍화토 지반에서 유발된 255개 재해이력 자료를 수집하였다. 그리고 기상청의 강우자료를 바탕으로 사면파괴가 발생한 시점의 전･후의 시간에 대한 강우량 데이터를 수집하였다. 수집된 재해이력과 강우량 데이터베이스를 바탕으로 사면파괴를 유형별(토석류, 얕은 사면파괴 등)로 분류하고, 통계적 기법인 분위수 회귀분석을 이용하여 강우강도 및 기간을 분석함으로써 강우 한계선을 제안하였다. 뿐만 아니라 2013년의 재해이력 자료를 통해 제안된 한계선의 검증을 수행하였다. 또한 국외의 한계선과 제안된 한계선을 비교･분석하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 강우 한계선은 산사태 예･경보시스템을 구축할 때 기초자료로 사용될 수 있다고 판단된다.

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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Geotechnical Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지반공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국지반공학회 논문집
  • Volume : 30
  • No :12
  • Pages :5-14
  • Received Date : 2014-09-02
  • Revised Date : 2014-11-17
  • Accepted Date : 2014-11-26
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7843/kgs.2014.30.12.5
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