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2025 Vol.41, Issue 1 Preview Page
Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Earthen Levees Considering the Hydraulic and Mechanical Properties of Soil

지반의 수리적 특성과 역학적 특성을 고려한 하천 제방의 확률론적 안정해석

Sung-Eun Cho1*
조 성은1*
1Member, Prof., School of Civil and Environmental Engineering & Construction Engineering Research Institute, Hankyong National Univ.
1정회원, 한경국립대학교 건설환경공학부 교수
*Corresponding Author
28 February 2025. pp. 55-68
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Abstract

The stability of river levees during floods is influenced by the complex hydraulic and mechanical properties of soil. Since levees are typically constructed on alluvial foundations using locally sourced materials, their behavior reflects the inherent variability of natural soils. To accurately assess embankment risks, probabilistic analyses must account for major failure modes, incorporating uncertainties in soil hydraulic and mechanical properties. This study examines the probabilistic behavior of internal erosion and slope stability in relation to fluctuating water levels. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted by integrating saturated–unsaturated finite element seepage analysis with slope stability analysis using the limit equilibrium method. This approach enables an assessment of how uncertainties in soil hydraulic and mechanical properties affect the probabilistic distributions of the exit hydraulic gradient and the slope safety factor. The results emphasize the significance of considering the uncertainty of saturated hydraulic conductivity—an essential hydraulic property of alluvial foundations and embankments—for accurate probabilistic stability analysis of river levees.

Keywords
Earthen levees
Exit hydraulic gradient
Probabilistic analysis
Seepage
Slope stability

하천에 설치된 제방의 홍수 시 안정성은 지반의 복잡한 수리학적 및 역학적 특성과 밀접한 관련이 있다. 제방은 일반적으로 충적층 기초 위에 주변에서 구할 수 있는 재료를 사용하여 축조되므로, 그 거동에는 자연재료의 고유한 변동성이 포함된다. 따라서 제방의 위험도를 평가하기 위해서는 주요 파괴모드에 대해 지반의 수리적 및 역학적 특성의 불확실성을 고려한 확률론적 해석이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 수위 변화에 따른 제방의 내적 침식 및 사면 안정성의 확률론적 거동을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 포화-불포화 유한요소 침투해석과 한계평형법에 의한 사면안정 해석을 연동하여 Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션을 수행하였으며, 지반의 수리적 및 역학적 특성의 불확실성이 유출동수경사와 사면 안전율의 확률적 분포에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 연구 결과, 하천 제방의 정확한 확률론적 안정 해석을 위해서는 충적층 기초와 제체의 필수적인 수리적 특성인 포화투수계수의 불확실성을 고려하는 것이 중요함을 확인할 수 있었다.

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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Geotechnical Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지반공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국지반공학회 논문집
  • Volume : 41
  • No :1
  • Pages :55-68
  • Received Date : 2025-02-14
  • Revised Date : 2025-02-25
  • Accepted Date : 2025-02-25
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7843/kgs.2025.41.1.55
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