All Issue

2017 Vol.33, Issue 7 Preview Page
Development of Fragility Curves for Seismic Stability Evaluation of Cut-slopes

지진에 대한 안전성 평가를 위한 깎기비탈면의 취약도 곡선 작성

Noh-Seok Park1
,
Sung-Eun Cho2*
박 노석1
,
조 성은2*
1Member, Junior Engineer, Geotechnical Department, Saman Corporation
2Member, Associate Prof., Dept. of Civil, Safety, and Environmental Engrg. & Construction Engrg. Research Institute Hankyong National Univ.
1(주)삼안 지반부 사원
2한경대학교 토목안전환경공학과 부교수
*교신저자. *Corresponding Author. 
31 July 2017. pp. 29-41
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

There are uncertainties about the seismic load caused by seismic waves, which cannot be predicted due to the characteristics of the earthquake occurrence. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these uncertainties by probabilistic analysis. In this paper, procedures to develop a fragility curve that is a representative method to evaluate the safety of a structure by stochastic analysis were proposed for cut slopes. Fragility curve that considers uncertainties of soil shear strength parameters was prepared by Monte Carlo Simulation using pseudo static analysis. The fragility curve considering the uncertainty of the input ground motion was developed by performing time-history seismic analysis using selected 30 real ground input motions and the Newmark type displacement evaluation analysis. Fragility curves are represented as the cumulative probability distribution function with lognormal distribution by using the maximum likelihood estimation method.

Keywords
Probabilistic analysis
Fragility curve
Monte Carlo Simulation
Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Newmark-type Displacement Analysis
Pseudo static Analysis

지진파로 인하여 발생되는 지진하중은 발생 특성상 예측이 불가능한 불확실성이 존재한다. 또한 비탈면과 같은 지반구조물에는 지반정수의 불확실성이 존재한다. 따라서 이러한 불확실성들을 확률론적 해석으로 고려할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 깎기비탈면에 대하여 확률론적 해석으로 구조물의 안전성을 평가하는 대표적인 방법인 취약도 곡선을 작성하는 방법을 제시하였다. 지반정수의 불확실성을 고려한 취약도 곡선은 Monte Carlo Simulation 기법을 이용해 유사정적 해석으로 작성하였다. 지진파의 불확실성을 고려한 취약도 곡선은 30개의 실제 발생한 지진파로 시간이력해석을 실시하여 Newmark-Type 변위 해석으로 작성하였으며, 취약도 곡선은 최대 우도 추정법을 이용하여 대수정규분포를 갖는 누적 확률분포 함수로 나타내었다.

References
1
Ahmed, A. and Soubra, A.H. (2012), “Probabilistic Analysis of Strip Footings Resting on a Spatially Random Soil Using Subset Simulation Approach”, Georisk, Vol.6, No.3, pp.188-201.
2
Argyroudis, S., Kaynia, A.M., and Pitilakis, K. (2013), “Development of Fragility Function for Geotechnical Constructions: Application to Cantilever Retaining Walls”, Soil dynamics and earthquake engineering, Vol.50, pp.106-116.
3
ASCE. (1998), Seismic guidelines for ports, Ports Committee of the Technical Council on Lifetime Earthquake Engineering, Monograph No.12, New York.
4
Baecher, G.B. and Christian, J.T. (2003), Reliability and Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering. Wiley, New York.
5
Casotto, C., Silva, V., Crowley, H., Nascimbene, R., and Pinho, R. (2015), “Seismic Fragility of Italian RC Precast Industrial Structures”, Engineering Structures, Vol.94, No.1, pp.122-136.
6
Chiou, J.S., Chiang, C.H., Yang, H.H., and Hsu, S.Y. (2011), “Developing Fragility Curves for a Pile-supported Wharf”, Soil dynamics and earthquake engineering, Vol.31, pp.830-840.
7
Cho, S.E. (2007), “Effects of Spatial Variability of Soil Properties on Slope Stability”, Engineering Geology, Vol.92, Nos.3-4, pp. 97-109.
8
Cho, S.E. (2010), “Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Slope Using the ANN-based Response Surface”, Computers and Geotechnics, Vol.136, No.7, pp.975-984.
9
Cho, S.E. (2013), “First-order Reliability Analysis of Slope Considering Multiple Failure Modes”, Engineering Geology, Vol.154, pp.98-105.
10
Ellingwood, B. and Tekie, P.B. (2001), “Fragility Analysis of Concrete Gravity Dams”, Journal of infrastructure systems, Vol.7, No.2, pp. 41-48.
11
Eurocode-8. (2004), Eurocode 8: Design of structures for earthquake resistance, Part 5: foundations, retaining structures and geotechnical aspects, CEN-ENV, Brussels.
12
Gazetas, G., Garini, E., Anastasopoulos, I., and Geogarakos, T. (2009), “Effects of Near-fault Ground Shaking on Sliding Systems”, Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering, Vol.77, No.12, pp.1906-1921.
13
GEO-SLOPE (2012), Dynamic modeling with quake/w 2012 Version, GEO-SLOPE International Ltd, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
14
GEO-SLOPE (2012), Stability modeling with slope/w 2012 Version, GEO-SLOPE International Ltd, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
15
Ingles, J., Darrozes, J., and Soula, J.C. (2006), “Effects of the Vertical Component of Ground Shaking on Earthquake-induced Landslide Displacements Using Generalized Newmark Analysis”, Engineering geology, Vol.86, Nos.2-3, pp.134-147.
16
Kennedy, R.P. and Ravindra, M.K. (1984), “Seismic Fragilities for Nuclear Power Plant Risk Studies”, J. Nuclear engineering and Design, Vol.79, No.1, pp.47-68.
17
Kim, J.M. and Sitar, N. (2013), “Probabilistic Evaluation of Seismically Induced Permanent Deformation of Slopes”, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, Vol.44, pp.67-77.
18
Kwon, O.S. and Elnashai, A. (2006), “The Effect of Material and Ground Motion Uncertainty on the Seismic Vulnerability Curves of RC Structure”, Engineering Structures, Vol.28, No.2, pp.289-303.
19
Ling, H.I., Leshchinsky, D., and Mohri, Y. (1997), “Soil Slopes under Combined Horizontal and Vertical Seismic Accelerations”, Earthquake engineering & structural dynamics, Vol.26, No.12, pp.1231-1241.
20
Low, B.K. (2003), “Practical Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis”, Canadian Geotechnical Journal, Vol.24, pp.520-535.
21
Newmark, N.M. (1965), “Effects of Earthquakes on Dams and Embankments”, Geotechnique, Vol.15, No.1, pp.47-59.
22
Noda, S., Uwabe, T., and Chiba, T. (1975), “Relation between Seismic Coefficient and Ground Acceleration for Gravity Quay Wall”, Report of Port and Harbour Research Institute, Vol.14, No.4, pp.67-111.
23
Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, http://peer.berkeley. edu/nga, Seismic Ground Motion data.
24
Phoon, K.K. and Kulhawy, F.H. (1999), “Characterization of Geo-technical Variability”, Canadian Geotechnical Journal, Vol.36, No.4, pp.612-624.
25
RocScience (2016), SLIDE v6.0 Version 6.039, Rocscience Inc, Toronto.
26
Sarma, S.K. and Scorer, M. (2009), “The Effect of Vertical Acceleration on Seismic Slope Stability”, International Conference on performance based design in earthquake geotechnical engineering, Tokyo.
27
Schneider, H.R. and Schneider, M.A. (2013), Modern geotechnical design codes of practice, eds. P. Arnold, G.A. Fenton, M.A. Hicks, T. Schweckendiek and B. Simpson, IOS Press, Amsterdam, pp. 87-101.
28
Seed, H.B. and Idriss, I.M. (1970), Soil moduli and damping factors for dynamic response analyses, Report. No. EERC-70/10, Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley.
29
Shinozuka, M., Feng, M.Q., Lee, J., and Naganuma, T. (2000), “Statistical Analysis of Fragility Curves”, Journal of Engineering Mechanics, Vol.126, No.12, pp.1224-1331.
30
Shinozuka, M., Feng, M.Q., Kim, H, Uzawa, T., and Ueda, T. (2003), Statistical analysis of fragility curves, Technical Report MCEER.
31
Singhal, A. and Kiremidjian, A.S. (1996), “Method for Probabilistic Evaluation of Seismic Structural Damage”, Journal of Structure engineering, Vol.122, No.12, pp.1459-1467.
32
Sun, P., Yin, Y.P., Wu, S.R., and Chen, L.W. (2012), “Does Vertical Seismic Force Play an Important Role for the Failure Mechanism of Rock Avalanches? A Case Study of Rock Avalanches Triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake of May 12, 2008, Sichuan, China”, Environmental earth sciences, Vol.66, No.5, pp.1285-1293.
33
Terzaghi, K. (1950), “Mechanism of Landslides”, Application of Engineering to Geology The Geological Society of America, pp. 83-123.
34
Torkamani, H.H., Bargi, K., Amirabadi, R., and McCllough, N.J. (2014), “Fragility Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Idealized Pile-supported Wharf with Batter Piles”, Soil dynamics and earthquake engineering, Vol.61-62, pp.92-106.
35
Wu, X.Z. (2014), “Development of Fragility Functions for Slope Instability Analysis”, Landslides, Vol.12, No.1, pp.165-175.
36
Tsompanakis, Y., Lagaros, N.D., Psarropoulos, P.N., and Georgopoulos, E.C. (2008), “Probabilistic Seismic Slope Stability Assessment of Geostructure”, Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, Vol.6, Nos.1-2, pp.179-191.
37
Zhang, Y., Zhang, J., Chen, G., Zheng, L., and Li, Y. (2015), “Effects of Vertical Seismic Force on Initiation of the Daguangbao Landslide Induced by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake”, Soil dynamics and earthquake engineering, Vol.73, pp.99-102.
38
Zhao, L.H., Cheng, H., Zhang, Y., Li, L., and Li, D.J. (2016), Stability analysis of seismic slopes with cracks, Computers and geotechnics, Vol.77, pp.77-90.
Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Geotechnical Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지반공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국지반공학회 논문집
  • Volume : 33
  • No :7
  • Pages :29-41
  • Received Date : 2017-03-28
  • Accepted Date : 2017-06-04
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7843/kgs.2017.33.7.29
Journal Informaiton Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
Archives
: Vol.23~28 (2007~2012)
  • NRF
  • KOFST
  • KISTI Current Status
  • KISTI Cited-by
  • crosscheck
  • orcid
  • open access
  • ccl
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close