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2026 Vol.42, Issue 3 Preview Page
Characteristic Analysis of Two- and Three-Dimensional Liquefaction Hazard According to Seasonal Groundwater Fluctuations

계절별 지하수위 변동에 따른 2·3차원 액상화 위험도 특성 분석

Sunghyuk Park1
,
Teawan Bang2
,
Han-saem Kim3
,
Wanjei Cho4*
박 성혁1
,
방 태완2
,
김 한샘3
,
조 완제4*
1Member, Graduate Student, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engrg., Dankook Univ.
2Member, Ph.D. Candidate, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engrg., Dankook Univ.
3Member, Assistant Prof., Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engrg., Dongguk Univ.
4Member, Prof., Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engrg., Dankook Univ.
1정회원, 단국대학교 토목환경공학과 석사과정
2정회원, 단국대학교 토목환경공학과 통합과정
3정회원, 동국대학교 토목환경공학과 조교수
4정회원, 단국대학교 토목환경공학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
30 June 2026. pp. 31-43
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Abstract

Liquefaction during earthquakes occurs when soil shear strength is reduced because of an increase in excess pore water pressure, resulting in severe geotechnical hazards such as differential settlement of structures and the uplift of underground facilities. Since the 2017 Pohang earthquake, accurate liquefaction hazard assessment has become increasingly important. However, conventional two-dimensional (2D) assessments often neglect seasonal groundwater fluctuations and cannot adequately characterize the depth-dependent distribution of liquefaction risk. To address these limitations, this study developed 2D liquefaction potential index maps and three-dimensional (3D) factor of safety voxel models by integrating 253 borehole datasets with seasonal groundwater levels for Q1 (dry season) and Q3 (wet season) estimated using Kriging and empirical Bayesian Kriging 3D. The results showed that liquefaction risk consistently increased during the wet season in both models. Notably, the high-risk area identified by the 2D assessment increased by 11.74 percentage points, substantially exceeding the 3.51% increase in high-risk volume observed in the 3D analysis. These findings suggest that 2D assessments may overestimate liquefaction risk because of their simplified weighting scheme. In contrast, the 3D analysis provides a more detailed evaluation of underground infrastructure by identifying depth-specific vulnerabilities. Therefore, integrating both approaches is recommended to improve liquefaction hazard assessment and risk management.

Keywords
3D voxel modeling
Groundwater fluctuation
Hazard assessment
Liquefaction
Liquefaction potential index

지진 시 발생하는 액상화는 과잉간극수압 상승에 따른 유효응력 감소로 지반의 전단강도가 상실되는 현상이며, 이는 상부 구조물의 침하와 지중 시설물의 부상 등 심각한 도시 재난을 야기한다. 2017년 포항 지진 이후 국내에서도 액상화 위험 예측의 중요성이 증대되고 있다. 하지만 기존 평가는 지하수위의 계절적 변동성을 간과하고 2차원 평면에 국한되어 심도별 위험 분포를 파악하기 어렵다는 한계가 있다. 따라서 실질적인 액상화 위험 관리를 위해서는 지하수위의 시계열적 변동성을 반영함과 동시에, 지하 공간의 위험을 입체적으로 규명할 수 있는 3차원적 평가 체계의 도입이 필수적이다. 이에 본 연구는 Kriging 및 EBK 3D 기법을 통해 도출된 1분기(건기) 및 3분기(우기) 지하수위 분포를 253개 시추공 데이터와 결합하여, 계절적 변동성을 고려한 2차원 액상화 가능성 지수(Liquefaction potential index, LPI) 지도와 3차원 안전율 복셀(Voxel) 모델을 구축하였다. 두 모델을 비교 분석한 결과, 지하수위가 상승하는 우기에 액상화 위험도가 공통적으로 증가하였다. 다만, 고위험군 증가율은 2차원 LPI(11.74%p)가 3차원 복셀 모델(3.51%p)보다 현저히 높았는데, 이는 2차원 모델이 보수적인 위험 지역 선별에는 효과적이나 실제 위험 범위는 과대평가할 수 있음을 시사한다. 결론적으로, 광역적 예비 평가에는 보수적인 2차원 모델이 효율적이나, 지중 구조물의 실질적 안정성을 규명하는 정밀 평가에는 3차원 복셀 모델의 도입이 필수적이다. 따라서 평가의 효율성과 신뢰도를 동시에 확보하기 위해 두 모델을 연계하는 상호 보완적 접근이 요구된다.

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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Geotechnical Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지반공학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국지반공학회 논문집
  • Volume : 42
  • No :3
  • Pages :31-43
  • Received Date : 2026-02-03
  • Revised Date : 2026-04-29
  • Accepted Date : 2026-05-14
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7843/kgs.2026.42.3.31
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